As global power structures shift and rivalries deepen, a new report by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) warns that escalating geopolitical competition is putting vulnerable nations at risk of economic distress, governance failures, and proxy conflict. The report, Geopolitical Influence & Peace, reveals that current levels of geopolitical risk surpass even Cold War-era benchmarks, while the developing world bears the brunt of the consequences.
Unlike the binary U.S.–Soviet rivalry of the 20th century, today’s world is increasingly defined by a web of competing interests among traditional powers and emerging middle powers. Nations like Türkiye, Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia are joining China and India in reshaping global influence. Strategic investments, particularly in technology and infrastructure, are being used to gain leverage in regions such as West Africa, South Asia, and Latin America.
However, the report cautions that this multipolar rivalry is not without consequences. Heightened military spending, stagnant nuclear disarmament, and declining multilateral cooperation — particularly at the United Nations — signal a breakdown in global consensus and institutional effectiveness.
Perhaps most concerning is the toll on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The report finds that 3.3 billion people now live in nations where interest payments on debt exceed spending on essential services like health and education. In 2023, global public debt reached a record $97 trillion, with developing countries absorbing debt at twice the rate of advanced economies since 2010.
Increased foreign competition in regions like the Sahel and South America is also linked to instability, often stoking internal conflicts or drawing in outside powers with conflicting agendas. In Sudan, for example, rival military factions — each backed by competing foreign interests — have displaced over 10 million people in one of the world’s most acute humanitarian crises.
The report also highlights a steep decline in the effectiveness of the United Nations. Vetoes at the UN Security Council have surged, while resolutions have dropped sharply since the 1990s peak. With the multilateral system faltering, donor nations are increasingly turning to bilateral aid to serve strategic goals, reinforcing dependency and influence over weaker states.
Trade, once seen as a force for peace and cooperation, has plateaued. Global trade as a share of GDP has hovered around 60% for the past decade. Instead of stabilizing relations, economic ties are now being weaponized through sanctions, trade wars, and supply chain decoupling — particularly between China and the U.S.
The IEP emphasizes that peace is not merely the absence of war but a measurable, achievable framework tied to prosperity and human development. As influence grows more contested and conflict more fragmented, the report calls for a renewed international commitment to peacebuilding, debt relief, and inclusive governance to protect the long-term stability of the world’s most vulnerable nations.
The Geopolitical Influence & Peace report offers a sobering reminder: in an era where power is more diffuse and conflict more complex, global peace can no longer be taken for granted. The rising costs of inaction — economically, socially, and environmentally — demand that the international community shift its focus from dominance to dialogue, from influence to impact.
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